The New England Patriots have not had a good offensive line for years. But by selecting Will Campbell with the fourth overall pick in the 2025 draft, the Patriots are hoping to turn the tide. It’s worth noting the historic nature of this pick; it’s the highest selection that New England has taken for any offensive lineman at all since taking John Hannah with the third pick in 1973. That guy, by the way, ended up being pretty good.
Since 2006, when Pro Football Focus (PFF) began tracking offensive line performance, thirteen offensive tackles have been drafted within the top five picks. In today’s piece, I will examine each of their first games, rookie seasons, and four-year arcs through the lens of PFF grades. Although I have no illusions about this being anything more than a fun statistical experiment, as it doesn’t break down game tape or take into account coaching, this should still provide a semi-useful framework for examining the short-term value of an offensive tackle with superficially similar profiles.
First Impressions
For this section, I’ve taken a look at each of the first games for offensive tackles drafted in the top five. While I do not think that first games are always indicative of the future for any professional player, this should provide a broad guideline for what Patriots fans can expect from Campbell on a broad level in his first week.
| Player | Blocking Snaps | Overall Grade | Pressures Allowed | Penalties Given |
| D’Brickashaw Ferguson | 73 | 58.3 | 2 | 1 |
| Joe Thomas | 62 | 83.7 | 1 | 0 |
| Levi Brown | 69 | 49.7 | 4 | 1 |
| Jake Long | 66 | 83.8 | 0 | 2 |
| Jason Smith | 60 | 71.7 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent Williams | 60 | 51.9 | 3 | 1 |
| Matt Kalil | 59 | 62.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Fisher | 61 | 59.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Luke Joeckel | 71 | 57.5 | 5 | 0 |
| Lane Johnson | 80 | 77.7 | 3 | 1 |
| Greg Robinson | 9 | 64.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Thomas | 68 | 60.8 | 4 | 0 |
| Joe Alt | 57 | 60.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Average Top 5 OT Pick | 61.2 | 64.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
In PFF terms, what this means is that most top five offensive tackle picks receive lots of playing time and perform at a roughly average level. With that said, the standard deviation was a fairly large 11.5, with Jake Long (83.8) and Joe Thomas (83.7) making an immediate Pro Bowl-level impact, while Levi Brown (49.7) and Trent Williams (51.7) made an immediate negative impact in their first games. Meanwhile, Eric Fisher (59.5) and Andrew Thomas (60.8) performed at the median level. Greg Robinson was in an interesting spot where he did not play the entirety of his first game.
Without adjusting for specific circumstances related to his team, Will Campbell can be expected to perform at the level of an average starter. Although we have a sample sample size, judging by his IQR range (25th percentile to 75th percentile), he could perform anywhere from median level at the 25th percentile range (58.3) to the higher end of average at the 75th percentile range (68.3).
Rookie Season: The First Year Standard
After examining how each of our selected players performed in their first game, I examined how they performed across the entirety of their rookie season. Thankfully within our data set, every rookie played in their debut, though as you’ll notice, not all of them were starters consistently throughout the year.
| Player | Blocking Snaps | Grade | Pressures Allowed | Penalties |
| D’Brickashaw Ferguson | 1115 | 66.1 | 40 | 3 |
| Joe Thomas | 1040 | 84.9 | 28 | 6 |
| Levi Brown | 734 | 63 | 35 | 5 |
| Jake Long | 1035 | 88.4 | 26 | 7 |
| Jason Smith | 323 | 73 | 13 | 1 |
| Trent Williams | 870 | 63.4 | 46 | 6 |
| Matt Kalil | 1096 | 78.6 | 27 | 6 |
| Eric Fisher | 789 | 57.8 | 47 | 6 |
| Luke Joeckel | 273 | 58.1 | 15 | 2 |
| Lane Johnson | 1160 | 74.9 | 60 | 8 |
| Greg Robinson | 724 | 61.3 | 27 | 11 |
| Andrew Thomas | 977 | 62.4 | 57 | 3 |
| Joe Alt | 1066 | 75.9 | 24 | 8 |
| Average Top 5 OT Pick | 861.7 | 71.3 | 34.2 | 5.5 |
In more encouraging news, top-five tackles typically receive lots of playing time and perform at an above average level. Though the standard deviation here remained big (10.1), only Luke Joeckel (58.1) and Eric Fisher (57.8) graded as below average players per-snap. Meanwhile, players like Jake Long (88.4) and Joe Thomas (84.9) graded near the top of their position with plenty of playing time, and each of Lane Johnson (74.9) and Matt Kalil (78.6) had noteworthy performances.
For Campbell, the IQR method of assessing his potential showcases a high floor with a very promising ceiling. At the 25th percentile range, he would have a 62.1 grade, while the median rookie range places him at a 63.4 grade. Conversely, the 75th percentile range would have him at a 75.65 grade – noticeably above average and close to the outskirts of Pro Bowl potential.
Four-Year Trajectories and Second Contracts
For our last statistics-based section, I’m going to explore how the players in our data set cumulatively performed in the first four years of their contract with the team that drafted them. I’ve simplified our data set to only include snap counts and PFF grades, but I’ve also added a note to which players ended up signing second contracts with their original teams. As a final aside, I’ve excluded Joe Alt from this sample due to the fact that he’s entering only his second season.
| Player | Total Snaps | PFF Grade | Re-signed with Team? |
| Joe Thomas | 3942 | 87.0 | Yes |
| Jake Long | 3978 | 84.0 | No |
| Trent Williams | 3665 | 79.7 | Yes |
| Lane Johnson | 3612 | 78.1 | Yes |
| Andrew Thomas | 3525 | 77.7 | Yes |
| D’Brickashaw Ferguson | 4422 | 76.8 | Yes |
| Matt Kalil | 4234 | 71.4 | No |
| Eric Fisher | 3848 | 69.6 | Yes |
| Jason Smith | 1921 | 68.6 | No |
| Luke Joeckel | 2376 | 67.4 | No |
| Levi Brown | 4128 | 67.3 | No |
| Greg Robinson | 2970 | 59.9 | No |
| Average Top 5 OT Pick | 3551.75 | 74.7 | N/A |
On one hand, the fact that only six of these twelve players resigned with their original drafting team does showcase long-term concern about being able to successfully retain Campbell. However, when it comes to his value as a player over the next four years, history suggests that he should be expected to perform, on average, like a quality starter in the league, assuming he remains healthy. While cases like Greg Robinson, Jason Smith, Luke Joeckel, Levi Brown, and even the initially promising Matt Kalil do exist as players that either struggled to stay on the field or consistently struggled to perform at a high level, there are as many – if not more – success points than failures or disappointments.
By the same standards used to project Will Campbell’s value in previous sections, a high floor can be expected here. At the 25th percentile range, Campbell can still be a more-than serviceable starter (67.2); at the 50th percentile range (68.6), he would be slightly better (68.6), and lastly at the 75th percentile range, he would be in the top half of his position (70.5).
What It Means for the Patriots
Although I’ve only looked in the last two decades and with a limited sample, we have something roughly close to a coin flip when it comes to evaluating how top five tackle draft picks pan out. But all considered, a fifty percent chance is pretty good. Even if Campbell ends up not becoming the next Joe Thomas or Trent Williams, the key to remember for New England is that he just has to be better than last year.
In 2024, the Patriots tackle position – on both sides – was a dumpster fire. Each of Vederian Lowe (54.0), Caedan Wallace (44.1), Demontray Jacobs (38.2), and the legendarily quick-retiring Chukwuma Okorafor (44.4) fizzled out at the position and created a nightmare that quarterback Drake Maye barely survived. For a team with as dire of a situation at this position last year, the value of Campbell even ending up a mildly disappointing starter cannot be overstated. Anything more than that, and New England will likely have secured a reliable piece for its offense in the Drake Maye Era – a current period that Campbell will undeniably play a role in shaping.
POST-PUBLISH UPDATE
In his Week 1 debut against the Las Vegas Raiders, Campbell ended up with a final PFF grade of 68.2, with a couple attributed penalties and four pressures allowed. Within our small sample size of thirteen drafted tackles, his performance is roughly in the 69th percentile. Having watched the game live in the stands, I was personally impressed by most of Campbell’s play before the second half, when a mix of nerves from his quarterback and miscommunications contributed to more pressure situations and penalties. For what it’s worth, only four offensive lineman drafted in the top five outperformed Campbell in their respective debuts: Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Lane Johnson, and Jason Smith: three Pro Bowl-or-Hall of Fame-caliber and one bust.