It’s fair to say that the New England Patriots have seen better days. Following a disappointing 4-13 season that led to the franchise ingloriously firing the greatest head coach of all-time, this year’s team currently sits at 3-10, officially eliminated from playoff contention. Although its rookie quarterback has shown flashes of brilliance, the Patriots could nonetheless end up with an even worse record than they did in the previous year.
With four games left to go and the year practically over, it’s possible that the Patriots could show signs of life, even if it’s too little and too late for this season. For example, the 2017 49ers started the year 1-10 before pulling off a five-game win-streak. Although the results didn’t end up translating to success in 2018, the following year, San Francisco ended up making the Super Bowl. But is it likely that New England can turn its franchise around in the long-term?
Today’s column is the first part of a multiple-week series all about the 2024 Patriots. First, I’ll talk about the state of the franchise at the end of the 2023 season and recap the most important roster moves the front office made throughout the off-season. Afterward, I’ll revisit the impact of those players in 2024 and examine what’s changed about the team over the last two years. Lastly, I’ll compare New England to teams in similar situations, and see how those teams operated after their respective seasons, as well as give one ray of hope to Patriots fans who feel especially hopeless.
What Happened Last Off-Season?
You never want to gloss over two franchise-altering moves, but because most football fans are familiar with them, I’m obliged to give them a quick mention: firing Bill Belichick and promoting Jerod Mayo to head coach. While it’s not a player-specific move, it’s clearly significant, as is the increase in responsibility from director of scouting Eliot Wolf, now the de facto general manager. You could say something similar for swapping out offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien for Alex Van Pelt, promoting former defensive line coach Demarcus Covington to defensive coordinator, and replacing special teams coordinator Cameron Achord with ex-Ram Jeremy Springer.
Let’s start with how the Patriots addressed the quarterback position: a glaring hole in the roster in the wake of Mac Jones fizzling out in his last year as a Patriot. The first thing the team did was trade Jones away for pennies to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Shortly afterward, New England signed former backup Jacoby Brissett as both a potential bridge starter and high-end backup. But this is burying the lead – the headliner move was drafting Drake Maye with the third overall draft pick. Though it’s easy to consider this move a no-brainer at the time, there was serious consideration of going elsewhere with the pick, whether it was trading down or picking a wide receiver. By choosing Maye, New England instead addressed its most important need through the draft.
When it came to the tackle position, another pressing need, the team let longtime starter Trent Brown walk, and took a conservative approach in a weak free agency for realistically available tackles, signing Pittsburgh Steelers cast-off Chukwuma Okorafor for a one-year deal and drafting Penn State prospect Caedan Wallace with the 68th pick. In terms of wide receivers, New England unsuccessfully attempted to pick up wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Brandon Aiyuk, but it also chose Ja’Lynn Polk with the 37th pick and Javon Baker with the 110th pick, while also picking up the ex-Minnesota Viking KJ Osborn and re-signing Kendrick Bourne to a three-year contract. New England also signed ex-Jaguar kicker Joey Slye as its replacement for the disastrous Chad Ryland.
With no splashes in free agency, the team brought back and extended many of its key players from the previous season: safety Kyle Dugger, running back Rhamondre Stevenson, multi-positional lineman Michael Onwenu, defensive rising star Christian Barmore, and tight end Hunter Henry. The one exception to the rule here was the sudden trade of edge rusher Matthew Judon to the Atlanta Falcons for a third round pick shortly before the season began. This move was criticized at the time, but it now looks like a steal in the wake of Judon’s immense decline.
On the whole, New England quickly addressed holes at head coach, quarterback, and kicker. When it came to wide receivers and tackles, however, the Patriots took a long-ball approach once making a big move was ruled out of the equation. This led to a litany of cheap veteran pickups, mid-round drafting, and resigning loyal veterans from the previous year, with barely any roster changes to the defense. The idea presented here is very clear: the 2023 Patriots were a subpar team with many issues in the roster. The 2024 Patriots, however, could take a leap forward with improved quarterback play, skill position development, and loyalty to starters that had performed well in the previous season. The team could also retain enough cap space for a big 2025 free agency.
What’s Happening Right Now?
We’ll begin with the good news: that the quarterback position has seen an undeniable uptick in performance. Compared to the disastrous duo of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe, Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett have collectively been an undeniable upgrade. By dropback EPA, the 2023 Patriots ranked in 31th place in the league (-0.192) in the first 13 weeks; the 2024 Patriots currently sit at 26th (-0.055). Although bottom two and bottom seven may not sound like a substantially different team, statistically speaking, this is similar to the gap between the eighth-ranked 2024 Steelers (0.143) and the 21st-ranked 2024 Jets (0.015). It’s not necessarily “good,” but fans would take this any day of the week over last year’s standard.
The bad news has come basically everywhere else, nowhere larger than the offensive line. Brown’s replacement Okorafor was nothing short of a disaster in limited snaps during Week 1 – and that was before he suddenly quit football. Combined with season-ending injuries to former first-round guard Cole Strange, longtime center David Andrews, and missed time from each of two recent draft picks in Wallace and Robinson, the offensive line has functionally become a merry-go-round. The most recurring order of New England’s offensive line has been Onwenu, human traffic cone Demontray Jacobs, a yellow flag magnet in left crackle Vederian Lowe, a practice squad cast off center in Ben Brown, and the third-string guard Michael Jordan. Every draft pick to address the offensive line failed, the new tackle signing of free agency failed, and the returning veterans are either hurt or currently failing. Per Pro Football Focus, the Patriots have allowed 194 pressures (14.92 per game) and 31 sacks (2.38 per game), which is on pace to exceed last year’s already awful 238 pressures (13.94 per game) and 38 sacks (2.23 per game).
Meanwhile, the receivers, sans slot regular Demario Douglas, have been horrendous. Ja’Lynn Polk is arguably the worst active wide receiver in the league. Confusingly, Javon Baker and KJ Osborn each have barely scratched the field despite Polk’s struggles. Kendrick Bourne has looked decent while playing, but he missed a good chunk of games to start the year. The Patriots entered this season with a very big portion of its roster dedicated to wide receivers. Only one, maybe two of these players, has shown return potential for 2025. At the same time, lead back Stevenson’s been nothing short of discouragingly poor, both showcasing a fumbling problem and looking half a step slower, and right after his big contract too. For context, the Patriots rank 25th in rushing EPA (-0.132) so far this year; by the end of week 13 of last year, they were 18th (-0.099).
It wasn’t necessarily surprising that New England would continue struggling on offense. What has been more shocking is the decline of the defense. In EPA per play allowed, the Patriots currently sit 29th in the NFL (0.072); by this point of the 2023 season, it was 15th (-0.022). However, it’s undeniable that the Patriots have uniquely suffered from injuries and absences from key starters. For very different reasons, Peppers and Barmore have missed heavy playing time this year. Key run stopper and linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley had a season-ending injury by the end of the second week. Long-term safety Dugger has both missed games, as well as suffered from an ankle injury that’s led to him not playing at one hundred percent. The trade of pass rusher Josh Uche, though it netted the Patriots a late draft pick, didn’t help the current defense either.
Although the Patriots have a budding star in cornerback Christian Gonzalez, he alone isn’t enough to account for the pure fact that this is just not the same defense. By total snaps, Gonzalez, linebacker Jahlani Tavai, edge rusher Keion White, edge rusher Anfernee Jennings, and longtime starting lineman Davon Godchaux lead the 2024 team. For comparison, the 2023 team’s most active defensive players by the same metric were Dugger, Bentley, Peppers, former corner Myles Bryant, and Tavai. Swapping out the greatest defensive mind in football history with a rookie coordinator certainly plays a role, but it’s clearly far from the only factor.
With that said, the Patriots have taken a step forward in special teams. In 2023, New England struggled to convert extra points, let alone make field goals, and it struggled in the return game, leading to a No. 29 finish in special teams DVOA (-17.8%). This year, the Patriots are notably better at No. 13 (0.8%). Slye’s been an undeniable upgrade from Ryland, and each of special teams ace Brendan Schooler and new rotation linebacker Christian Elliss have played a role in a better year for New England in this department. Though there’s certainly room to criticize the lack of consistency, we shouldn’t forget that the ineptitude of the offense and defense leaves little room for error.
Historical Contemporaries
New England’s 3-10 record may actually underplay its ineptitude. The Patriots aren’t just losing to strong teams – they’re losing to other losers. As of right now, by total DVOA, they are the worst team in the league (-36.0%). The 2023 Patriots, mind you, ended their season with the 27th ranked DVOA (-15.8%). In practically every way but special teams and the quarterback position, New England has gotten worse.
Using FTN Fantasy, I looked through the historical archives of DVOA to find other teams that have had the same or worse DVOA as New England currently has at the end of Week 13. I then examined how these same teams performed by Week 13 of the respective next season in the same statistic.
| Seasons & Teams | DVOA by Week 13 in Year 1 | DVOA by Week 13 in Year 2 | Net Shift in DVOA |
| 2019 – 2020 Dolphins | -42.8% | 13.0% | +53.8% |
| 2012 – 2013 Chiefs | -37.2% | 8.7% | +45.9% |
| 2022 – 2023 Texans | -36.8% | 7.5% | +44.3% |
| 2009 – 2010 Browns | -36.2% | 3.2% | +39.4% |
| 2010 – 2011 Panthers | -44.7% | -8.8% | +35.9% |
| 2009 – 2010 Lions | -46.7% | -11.7% | +30.0% |
| 2005 – 2006 49ers | -52.7% | -22.9% | +29.8% |
| 2011 – 2012 Colts | -44.4% | -17.6% | +26.8% |
| 2007 – 2008 49ers | -39.8% | -16.6% | +23.2% |
| 2002 – 2003 Texans | -39.9% | -23.0% | +16.9% |
| 2023 – 2024 Giants | -38.5% | -22.3% | +16.2% |
| 2008 – 2009 Rams | -47.5% | -32.9% | +14.6% |
| 2016 – 2017 Browns | -41.4% | -27.1% | +14.3% |
| 2013 – 2014 Jaguars | -44.9% | -34.6% | +10.3% |
| 2003 – 2004 Cardinals | -38.4% | -32.9% | +5.5% |
| 2008 – 2009 Lions | -48.7% | -46.7% | +2.0% |
| 2002 – 2003 Cardinals | -38.3% | -38.4% | -0.1% |
| 2004 – 2005 49ers | -45.1% | -52.7% | -7.6% |
Let’s not mince words here: this is a group that understandably will alarm Patriots fans. However, it is also worth noting that terrible teams usually improve. That’s due to a variety of factors, from personnel changes to staff changes to even just better luck on player health. On average, teams that are as bad or worse than the 2024 Patriots improve by 22.3 percent in DVOA over the next year. If anything, the most successful team in this statistic (the 2019-2020 Dolphins) should be encouraging for New England fans. Miami’s head coach at that time was Brian Flores, the only other rookie head coach than Jerod Mayo (since 2002) who was hired without coordinator experience.
For those of you who are DVOA-skeptical, I also conducted the same analysis using W-L records with the same group. I personally prefer DVOA because it’s a better predictive statistic for evaluating a team’s performance. Wins and losses are volatile and often more descriptive than they are necessarily predictive of future results. Nonetheless, teams in similar status to New England improve by an average of 2.08 wins in their respective following seasons.
What’s Next?
When the entire ship seems to be sinking, it’s not easy to pick a single area that a struggling team should prioritize. Thankfully, however, as I’ve recapped in my previous columns, the Patriots have two promising pieces for each side of the field: Drake Maye and Christian Gonzalez. Moving forward, they should take a look at how these other struggling teams have proceeded with off-season moves – for better and worse – to build on each side of the ball respectively around whatever talent existed there.
The Flores-era Dolphins provide an interesting example of a best-case scenario for the current Patriots. Flores’ first year with Miami began with the team looking like one of the worst teams of all-time before the team suddenly finished 5-4 in the last nine games of the season, benefiting from the return of starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. In 2020, following the team trading up to draft quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins took a huge leap forward to riding the No. 7 defense in EPA per play (-0.023) to a 10-6 record. A combination of Flores’ prowess as a defensive coach, as well as several key off-season acquisitions of defensive role players across the league, played a role here.
Although the team barely missed the playoffs in large part due to Tagovailoa missing games and an inconsistent offense, it was an undeniable step forward from previous years. 2021 was mostly a similar season in that regard, as the Dolphins continued to struggle with an inconsistent offense and Tua’s health (despite the drafting of wideout Jaylen Waddle). However, Flores’ defense (No. 8 in EPA per play at -0.027), kept Miami in games and steered the season to a 9-8 finish.
The specific path taken by Flores and Miami toward improvement was not flawless, and for that matter, not all of it necessarily applicable to the Patriots. In fact, Flores’ eventual departure from the team is a whole can of worms that goes beyond the scope of this column, as very little of it seemingly had to do with the lack of a playoff appearance during his short tenure. For now though, his tenure with the Dolphins undeniably showcases how a rookie head coach with little play calling experience can extract success from a struggling organization. With enough time and correct decision-making, maybe the Patriots and Mayo can find something similar. I’ll talk about how in next week’s column.