There’s many reasons for New England Patriots fans to be frustrated with the current state of the franchise, but none of them is a bigger symbol of what’s gone wrong than Ja’Lynn Polk. Although New England had a bye week, it hasn’t stopped media figures, fans, and analysts from discussing how terrible Polk has been in a long line of disappointments. What’s been especially painful for fans too has been seeing the success of rookie Chargers wideout Ladd McConkey, whom Los Angeles traded up with New England to pick for the 34th pick. In the eyes of long-time Patriots die-hards, it was another predictable blunder; had de facto general manager Eliot Wolf just selected McConkey instead of playing cute with trading down and picking Polk, the franchise would be in a much better spot.
It’s understandable for New England fans to be uniquely frustrated with Polk, but the logic behind criticizing the decision to draft one second round receiver over another doesn’t quite hold up. Per Sports Illustrated, Polk was projected to be a Top 40 pick. Even assuming the Patriots may have slightly over-drafted Polk, there’s a marginal difference in expected value from where McConkey was drafted, to where Polk was drafted, to the end of the second round itself. If you don’t believe the numbers, then consider that by trading down and obtaining another pick, New England may have been trying to avoid repeating the same fate it suffered with the infamous N’Keal Harry selection in 2019. Given the unique difficulty of drafting successful wide receivers, I’m also skeptical of the answer being as simple as “pick better players.” Using each player’s performance after the fact to judge their selections is the post-hoc fallacy; like saying that someone should have never hit on a 16 against the dealer’s ten because the next card happened to be a 7.
However, New England fans still have plenty of ammo to go after the front office. This leads me to the second part of my autopsy series, in which I talk about everything that’s gone wrong with the 2024 Patriots. Similar to last week’s column, I’m going to recap last off-season for New England, but I’m going to instead focus on what fundamental errors the team’s management made – in other words, the decisions that should have been red flags, not just hindsight but even at the time. Once I’m done with that, I’ll then offer my suggestions for what the Patriots could do in the 2025 free agency period to improve their position for the future and address key needs in the roster.
New England’s biggest mistakes in the 2024 offseason
While I’m hesitant to critique New England for the specific selection of Polk, the wide receiver situation has nonetheless been an utter disaster in a few predictable ways. It seems like the approach that Wolf took to this position last off-season was to initially swing for the fences via a Calvin Ridley signing or trade for Brandon Aiyuk. When that didn’t work, New England proceeded to respond with hesitancy toward the idea of a roster overhaul.
Heading into the 2024 season, New England retained seven wide receivers (while placing Kendrick Bourne on the P.U.P. list): both rookie picks in Polk and Javon Baker, slot receiver DeMario Douglas, former second round bust Tyquan Thornton, now-released KJ Osborn, 2023 late round draft pick Kayshon Boutte, and returning notable first round bust Jalen Reagor. This was a spray-and-pray approach: keeping seven (eight, really) receivers, most of whom were returning disappointments, and hoping two or more of them panned out. Only one of them, slot receiver Demario Douglas, has shown any long-time roster potential. Although the newly signed tight end Austin Hooper and extended Hunter Henry have performed admirably in limited time, they’re not realistically adequate replacements for long-term receivers.
| Player | Receiving Yards | Status |
| Demario Douglas | 497 | Active |
| Kayshon Boutte | 330 | Active |
| Kendrick Bourne | 209 | Active |
| Ja’Lynn Polk | 87 | Active |
| KJ Osborn | 57 | Cut |
| Tyquan Thornton | 47 | Cut |
| Javon Baker | 0 | Active |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | Cut |
The Patriots also blew the entire offensive line situation. We’ll begin with the issues at guard – New England entered this year with a Plan A duo of former first round pick Cole Strange and longtime multi-lineman Michael Onwenu. When Strange ended up tearing a tendon in his left knee, the backup plan was to run it back with returnee Sidy Sow, only for him to end up getting hurt and quickly losing the starting job. Since then, fourth round rookie guard Layden Robinson and journeyman backup Michael Jordan (now cut from the team) have delivered predictably bad results together. Strange is currently set to return in his next game after not playing a snap all year, so it’s theoretically possible that he could perform at a high enough level to assuage fans. But I’m not counting on it.
The tackle situation has been similarly catastrophic. When the freshly signed Chukwuma Okorafor proceeded to shit the bed in Week 1 and quit football afterward, the Patriots were left holding an empty bag. Plan B was returning one of the poorest performing tackles from 2023 in Vederian Lowe and throwing third round draft pick Caedan Wallace out to the wolves. Since then, Wallace has been hurt, while Lowe has shown minimal improvement, from “god awful” to “mildly bad” Meanwhile, in place of Wallace, the New England tackle with the most number of snaps for 2024 is former Denver Broncos practice squad tackle Demontrey Jacobs, who has allowed a team-high eight sacks in 11 games. Onwenu himself has been shifted from tackle to guard multiple times this season, and it’s led to a decline in his own performances.
We then get into a potential question mark for 2025 and beyond in the center position. New England entered this season relying on an aging longtime starter in center David Andrews, and, following Andrews’ injury, quickly found itself having to scrape the bargain bin with a signing of Nick Leverett. Currently, the Patriots have found a semi-reliable piece in former Raiders practice squad member Ben Brown, but it’s a hardly ideal situation. Frankly, the lack of long-term planning for center might actually have been the most glaring positional mistake of the off-season, even if Brown’s replacement-level performances have relatively covered it.
| Player | Pressures Allowed | Sacks Allowed | Penalties | Status |
| Michael Onwenu | 28 | 1 | 5 | Starting |
| Michael Jordan | 23 | 3 | 2 | Cut |
| Demontrey Jacobs | 41 | 8 | 8 | Starting |
| Vederian Lowe | 25 | 4 | 11 | Starting |
| Ben Brown | 12 | 4 | 5 | Starting |
| Layden Robinson | 25 | 4 | 3 | Starting / In Question |
| David Andrews | 5 | 1 | 2 | IR |
| Sidy Sow | 9 | 1 | 1 | Benched |
| Nick Leverett | 10 | 1 | 2 | Cut |
| Zach Thomas | 4 | 2 | 0 | Cut |
| Caedan Wallace | 3 | 1 | 4 | IR |
| Cole Strange | 0 | 0 | 0 | Starting / In Question |
| Chukwuma Okorafor | 3 | 0 | 0 | Retired |
To close out the series of moves related to the offense, New England also signed starting running back Rhaemondre Stevenson to a four-year, $36 million deal. We have years of historical data showing that the majority of multi-year running back signings like these do not turn out like the Philadelphia Eagles’ pickup of Saquon Barkley, and Stevenson proceeded to take a huge step back in performance this year. He’s arguably getting out-performed on a per-snap basis by new pickup Antonio Gibson, whom the Patriots bizarrely signed at the same time to a three-year, $11.25 million contract. With respect to Stevenson, who had performed fairly well in his time with the team, aging running backs should not be a rebuilding franchise’s long-term priority.
The last of New England’s blunders in the prior off-season was taking the results of the 2023 Patriots defense for granted. No one would deny that an unusual number of injuries have derailed the Patriots’ defense and made the situation noticeably different than the prior year. Simultaneously though, there were zero significant additions made on this side of the ball, despite losing the greatest defensive mind in NFL history. New England had to know that there would be a slight setback in defensive performance, and it had every opportunity to address this via free agency and the draft.
Instead, the team let go of several defensive role players, including cornerback Myles Bryant, linebacker Mack Wilson, and longtime defensive tackle Lawrence Guy. It then traded away each of edge defender Matthew Judon and edge defender Josh Uche. These are not necessarily unreasonable moves by themselves, but they look worse in the context of the Patriots doing nothing to cover for each player’s absence. The only notable moves the team made were lateral at best: picking up the middling linebacker Sione Takitaki, defensive tackle Armon Watts, who never played a snap in the regular season with the team, and signing new safety Jaylinn Hawkins to replace the parting Adrian Phillips, among other forgettable roster additions. To be fair, New England did pick up Ravens castoff defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue midway through the season, but this was a reactive move the team made during a lost year, not a proactive decision.
Clearly, there’s a fundamental issue in how the Patriots addressed every roster spot outside of quarterback: the team acted like it did not know what it had. New England then took this year to return several subpar players from 2023 while avoiding anything outside of the bargain bin in free agency. This is an appropriate approach for middling teams with an unclear future – not one for rebuilding teams with young franchise cornerstones to develop. Compare New England’s approach to what the Washington Commanders did in reshaping their entire offensive line and having massive personnel turnover over the off-season.
The final product has been disastrous. As Greg Bedard writes in the Boston Sports Journal, “The Patriots have only improved in special teams and pass offense. The rest of the team has backslid.” To avoid ending up in the same spot next season, New England will have to take a different approach in 2025, the first of which involves using its league-leading $139 million in cap space.
Free Agency Pt. 1: Spend at least $40 million on the tackle position.
The first series of moves are addition by subtraction: cut Jacobs and Lowe to move on from the worst tackle duo in football. In the short-term, this would make Wallace the only tackle remaining on the roster, but the Patriots should aggressively pursue at least one of the two best tackles in the market: Ravens stud Ronnie Stanley or veteran Broncos starter Garrett Bolles. My preferred pick is Stanley, who’s been absolutely critical to Baltimore’s success, but Bolles is the more realistic choice.
There is risk in this approach; Bolles is 32, and the Patriots have seen past signings of offensive lineman not pan out, but Bolles, unlike Riley Reiff and Okorafor, is a strong starter. I would compare his status in the marketplace to Terron Armstead in 2022, when the Dolphins signed the then-31-year-old star tackle to a five-year, $87.5 million deal. Armstead has missed games in his time with Miami, but he’s currently playing at an elite level. Any contract offered to Bolles will be likely somewhere between what Armstead had and what Trent Williams was given in his six-year, $138 million mega-deal with the San Francisco 49ers. My guess: three years and $65 million without accounting for guaranteed money would be a good offer. This will leave New England with two tackles on the roster: Bolles and Wallace. For the third spot, my suggestion is the Patriots sign Vikings tackle Cam Robinson. Committing to him won’t necessarily be long-term, so even a potential short-term overpay is fine here for the next couple years at starter money, maybe something like $30 million for two years.
Will signing two new tackles turn the 2025 Patriots into the 2017 Eagles? Probably not. For now though, the additional tackles will help the quality of the position on the depth chart. They would also allow Onwenu to play in his more natural position at left guard, rather than being yanked across the offensive line. Combined with the expected returns of Strange, Andrews, and maybe even a quick re-signing of surprise starting center Brown in a backup role, the bar on this offensive line will be a little closer to league average. But rather than using these moves as a launching pad or supplementary decisions to a big free agency splash at a skill position, New England should look at the other side of the field.
Free Agency Pt. 2: Ignore the sirens – get a pass rusher for the same money.
At the risk of upsetting many excited fans, the history of signing wideouts comparable to Tee Higgins does not suggest a successful average return on investment. I do not think the Patriots should try to make a big splash at the wide receiver position in free agency, let alone for someone who is abut to miss the 1,000-yard receiving mark for a second consecutive season. While there are success cases, there are far more failures in recent history of wide receivers given millions of dollars in free agency.
Take, for instance, the Jacksonville Jaguars signing Christian Kirk to a four-year, $72 million deal, which has since been followed up by one 1,000-yard season, disappointing play, and injuries. Kenny Golladay’s disastrous time with the New York Giants tells an even worse story, and the tenure of Corey Davis with the New York Jets similarly fizzled out. Ironically, the case which Patriots fans could fear the most is former off-season target Aiyuk – about two months after a four-year, $120 million deal, he proceeded to tear his ACL and miss the season. It’s possible that Higgins’ history of production and youth put him in a favorable position, but his decline in performance and availability over the last two seasons carries unique risk.
Instead, the Patriots should fill out the holes surrounding their edge rush: the weakest part of the defense in 2024. Thankfully this upcoming free agency class has no shortage of edge rushers: Khalil Mack, Joshua Sweat, Haason Reddick, and DeMarcus Lawrence being the most notable. I like Sweat’s all-around skill set, positional versatility, and age the most; regardless, whichever of the edge rushers the Patriots take will probably cost them about $20 million to $28 million per-year and likely for three to four total years.
As far as these contracts go, the recent record is way more favorable to defenders holding their end of the bargain. Each of the aforementioned Hines-Allen and Hunter have performed excellently after their signings. Similarly, Jonathan Greenard has been a standout performer for the Vikings. On average, the Patriots are way more likely to get a return on their investment from a free agent starting edge defender than they are a wide receiver. A defensive line of Keion White, Christian Barmore, and Josh Sweat, with Deatrich Wise Jr. and Davon Godchaux playing in rotation with these three, would be a nuisance for opposing defenses: a great mix of pass rush coming from everywhere on the line.
Free Agency Pt. 3: Spend $15 million on the corner position.
The Patriots know they have a budding shutdown star in Gonzalez, but if recent games against each of the Dolphins and Rams show anything, they sorely miss a real No. 2 cornerback. Thankfully, there’s many that will be available in 2025’s free agency, my preferred choice being current Jets standout and divisional rival DJ Reed. The recent history of contracts for starting number two cornerbacks has also been very promising: the 49ers and Eagles each saw great returns from key signings in Charvarius Ward (another option for the Patriots) and James Bradberry for previous seasons. Using the Bradberry contract as a basis for what New England could offer Reed (or a positional peer like Paulson Addebo), I would expect something around a $45 million deal spread out over a few years based on precedent for highly performing starting corners in free agency.
| Player | Contract (Millions / Year) | Average Annual Revenue (Millions) |
| Jaylon Johnson | 76 / 4 | 19 |
| JC Jackson | 82. 5 / 5 | 16.5 |
| Carlton Davis | 44.5 / 3 | 14.83 |
| William Jackson | 42 / 3 | 14 |
| Charvarius Ward | 40.5 / 3 | 13.5 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 40 / 3 | 13.33 |
| Jamel Dean | 52 / 4 | 12 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 36 / 3 | 12 |
| Donte Jackson | 35.1 / 3 | 11.7 |
| Cameron Sutton | 33 / 3 | 11 |
| DJ Reed | 33 / 3 | 11 |
| Kenny Moore II | 30 / 3 | 10 |
| Darious Williams | 30 / 3 | 10 |
| Ronald Darby | 30 / 3 | 10 |
| Patrick Peterson | 10 / 1 | 10 |
Signing Reed makes sense for a variety of reasons. First off, Reed is a very good cornerback. Newsflash: it is very good to have very good cornerbacks on your team. However, the addition of Reed would also naturally assist moving current starters to more comfortable rules. Marcus Jones, the Patriots de facto No. 2 corner right now, would be able to play in the slot role: a way better fit for his natural skill set. New England could also play more defensive back-heavy lineups, which plays into the existing depth they have at safety, with Peppers, Dugger, Marte Mapu, and Dell Pettus – quietly the best open-field tackler on the roster – being key players for 2025.
That could change with the signing of one of the best free agent cornerbacks. New England, a team that used to have legendary “Big Nickel” and dime packages, could recreate something similar in the future with one signing. Imagine a defensive backfield of Gonzo and Reed at the edges, Peppers and Pettus in the traditional safety spots, with Dugger or Mapu playing the inside linebacker position next to Ja’Whaun Bentley or Jahlani Tavai, and Marcus Jones available to cover slot receivers. It may not be the 2019 Patriots, but this would be a hell of a lot closer to the 2023 Patriots: a strong, conservative defense bolstered by excellent coverage and tackling, as well as a consistent three or four-man rush.
Free Agency Pt. 4: Keep Daniel Ekuale
While New England will have each of Davon Godchaux and Barmore returning at the interior defensive spots, Daniel Ekuale, the most active interior defensive lineman, will be an unrestricted free agent. At 30 years old, he is an aging player, but also one who’s been the team’s best primary run stopper on the defensive line. Of the Patriots players with at least 200 snaps, Ekuale is the only one who hasn’t missed a tackle this year. He’s a run stopping specialist at heart, the type of rotation player that doesn’t necessarily command massive contracts, making him an affordable signing and strong returnee to the 2025 season.
The run defense will be much better with a full season of Barmore, a better pass rush, and a cornerback signing in Reed, but the Patriots should not let Ekuale walk. New England doesn’t even have to look beyond the organization for an example of what a mid-tier defensive lineman contract looks like: it just has to see the two-year, $18 million dollar deal worked out with Godchaux. By bringing back Ekuale, New England can return the same line it had in the previous year, but effective have a younger and better version of Matthew Judon in Josh Sweat to make big plays. Combined with a devastating defensive backfield, and the Patriots could have the makings of a top ten defense once again with better health.
Free Agency Pt. 5: Resign Joey Slye.
This move is admittedly less important than the other positions, but Joey Slye has shown enough promise for New England to retain him. At only 28 years-old, his whole career as a kicker laid ahead of him, and he’s performed at an adequate level, making 78.6 percent of his field goals this year, missing only one extra point.
I can’t blame Patriots fans for rolling their eyes at his 25-yard whiff vs. the Colts, which ended up actually costing New England the game. At the same time though, Slye has a great leg and has demonstrably proven his reliability in the 30 to 49 yard range, making 13 out of 16 kicks so far this year. From kicks of more than 50 yards, he’s only missed two of six all season, one of which was the nearly history-making 68-yarder to end the Colts game, and the other which was a tough 56-yarder versus the Titans.
If Slye struggles in the future, it would be worth investigating other options. At the moment though, he’s far from the worst thing about the Patriots and has room to grow throughout the rest of his career. He’s an average kicker with potential – fine enough to not be a problem area and enough room to grow to keep him around. A three-year, $3 million deal would fit the bill.
What’s Next?
By the end of March, hopefully New England will be set at each of the tackle, cornerback, and edge defender positions. While they won’t be a Super Bowl contender yet, by pursuing these three areas, the Patriots will be able to build a stable foundation for improvement without taking an unreasonable amount of risk or compromising New England’s long-term future. A competent offensive line, an improved pass rush, a healthier secondary, and a returning young kicker can help move the needle toward average and turn the Patriots from a disaster to a competitive football team.
Although my suggestions offer a pathway for addressing needs, New England has a lot more work to do. The success of its draft will perhaps be the most critical determinant for its future. With the wide receiver, guard, center, and linebacker positions still needing to be fulfilled, I’ll talk next week about how I think the Patriots can turn around the franchise.