Coming off a bye, you’d think the New England Patriots would have had a better showing against the middling Arizona Cardinals. Instead, they sleepwalked their way to another double-digit loss – one that led to another series of post-game grumbling and post-post-game walk-backs from head coach Jerod Mayo. ESPN reporter Mike Reiss put it harshly: the Patriots got “what they deserved” in their performance. Since then, Mayo’s job security has been put under scrutiny by local and national media.
In the first part of my “Autopsy of the 2024 Patriots” series, I recapped New England’s most notable off-season moves, noting the relationship between these decisions and the current team’s performance. Following that was last week’s column, in which I took another look at the 2024 off-season, talked about what the front office fundamentally got wrong, and then suggested a series of free agency moves that could help bolster the team. In part three, I’m further drilling down on available moves this free agency, and then roughly talking about the team’s biggest draft priorities for 2025 should be. To conclude the column, I will then make my call as to what the 2025 roster could look like.
Free Agency (Continued)
This retreads somewhat similar ground that I covered last weekend, but in the wake of Garrett Boles’ four-year, $82 million deal with the Denver Broncos, it’s worth mentioning that come what may, New England should continue to remain aggressive on the tackle market, even at the risk of overpaying. That means that any of Cam Robinson, Walker Little, or Tyron Smith is in play for a contract with an average annual revenue of $22 million. At this point, anything is an upgrade from the terrible duo of Vederian Lowe and Demontrey Jacobs; the end result should be a substantial and large investment in the tackle position over the next couple of years, bare minimum.
On a more low-key note, New England should also re-sign each of linebacker Christian Elliss and cornerback Alex Austin. Neither are necessarily amazing starters, but they’ve each shown signs of life under the spotlight, with Austin having a great game against the Colts and Elliss consistently being one of the team’s best tacklers in the open field Moving forward with the Patriots, it would be likely that both receive more playing time, even if they’re not outright starters. Both of their current contracts sit at the of one year, $985,000 deals; extending them for another year or two at $1.5 million seems fair.
The Patriots will additionally head into 2025 with holes at the number two tight end and backup quarterback positions, as both Austin Hooper and Jacoby Brissett are about to hit free agency. Although you can’t underestimate the likelihood of another team offering a can’t-refuse contract, there’s no reason that New England can’t re-sign both Hooper and Brissett on cheap contracts. Combined, I can’t imagine it would cost the team more than $9 million over a year.; at worst, they could offer a back-loaded three-year deal to each player where the guaranteed money is low, or vice versa.
The last thing I want to mention here: I know what I wrote last week about Joey Slye doesn’t seem to age well. Furthermore, his raw field goal percentage is among the worst in the league. However, this statistic doesn’t account for difficulty of kicks, whether it be through conditions, wind, or mere distance, which is a relative strength for Slye and common problem the Patriots have run into. Given that Slye is only 28 years old – and that New England’s ex-draft pick kicker Chad Ryland has found success elsewhere after an initially horrible start to his career – I don’t think it makes sense to give up on Slye this early into his stint with the franchise. Amid his infuriating inconsistency, particularly with shorter field goals, he’s shown enough potential in long distance while performing at an average level overall.
| Free Agent | AAR in 2025 Season (million) | Position |
| Josh Sweat | 25 | ED |
| Cam Robinson | 22 | T |
| Walker Little | 22 | T |
| DJ Reed | 15 | CB |
| Daniel Ekuale | 8 | DI |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | QB |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | TE |
| Ben Brown | 3.5 | C |
| Christian Elliss | 1.5 | LB |
| Alex Austin | 1.5 | CB |
| Joey Slye | 1 | K |
Let’s briefly recap our hypothetical off-season. We fixed the tackle position over the next few years. We’ve also signed a budding star edge defender for long-term and picked up one of the best number two cornerbacks in football, while also resigning a starting interior defender. Following that, we’ve given our up-and-down kicker another year, and we’ve kept four rotation guys or backups. Together, it costs us about $108.5 million over the next year, leaving us $30.5 million in cap space for the next year.
The NFL Draft – The First Round
When we look at who’s most likely available and ready for New England: three names stand out for our current position as a team drafting in the Top 5: Travis Hunter, Mason Graham, and Tetairoa McMillan. For the purpose of simplifying our analysis, I’m not going to consider situations where the Patriots might consider trading down for draft capital. Along with the team being in a position where it has to take what it can get, the 2025 draft class doesn’t seem like one where many teams are desperate enough to take a gamble.
Let’s begin with Hunter: the biggest question mark, yet most exciting prospect of the draft. While Patriots fans might fondly remember the days of Troy Brown and Julian Edelman taking snaps at cornerback, it’s not something that most people consider a realistic possibility in the NFL, where the workload of starting – not just occasionally playing – each position is far larger than it is at the collegiate level. It isn’t as if two-way players in college haven’t ever found success in the pros – ask Deion Sanders, Patrick Peterson, or Charles Woodson – but at the same time, even these players only started at one position (cornerback) at the highest level. If Hunter overcame the odds to be a starter on both ends of the ball, he would be a trailblazer for all NFL athletes, but for now, I would treat him as more likely to be a cornerback.
I previously expressed skepticism surrounding the possibility of a big trade for Tee Higgins. Funnily enough, a large reason why I’m cautiously pessimistic about it is because I think New England can get younger version of Higgins via McMillan in the draft. At 6’5” and 212 pounds, he fits the big body bold of what you’d want from a pro receiver. Patriots fans might have N’Keal Harry-related trauma of seeing former first-round receiver picks flop, but for what it’s worth, the latest history of Top 5 to 10 receiver picks suggests that it’s actually a fairly good investment. While it’s too early to tell for some of the more recently drafted, the little data we have from 2007 and onward suggests that these picks often go more right than wrong. Context to these successes and failures, of course, matters, but holding all else equal, New England has good odds.
| Year | Pick | Name | Success? |
| 2007 | 2 | Calvin Johnson | Yes |
| 2003 | 2 | Charles Rogers | No |
| 2003 | 3 | Andre Johnson | Yes |
| 2005 | 3 | Braylon Edwards | Yes |
| 2004 | 3 | Larry Fitzgerald | Yes |
| 2000 | 4 | Peter Warrick | No |
| 2011 | 4 | A.J. Green | Yes |
| 2014 | 4 | Sammy Watkins | Yes |
| 2015 | 4 | Amari Cooper | Yes |
| 2024 | 4 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | Yes |
| 2012 | 5 | Justin Blackmon | No |
| 2017 | 5 | Corey Davis | No |
| 2021 | 5 | Ja’Marr Chase | Yes |
| 2011 | 6 | Julio Jones | Yes |
| 2021 | 6 | Jaylen Waddle | Yes |
| 2024 | 6 | Malik Nabers | Yes (so far) |
| 2004 | 7 | Roy Williams | Yes |
| 2005 | 7 | Troy Williamson | No |
| 2009 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | No |
| 2014 | 7 | Mike Evans | Yes |
| 2015 | 7 | Kevin White | No |
| 2017 | 7 | Mike Williams | Yes |
| 2000 | 8 | Plaxico Burress | Yes |
| 2001 | 8 | David Terrell | No |
| 2013 | 8 | Tavon Austin | No |
| 2022 | 8 | Drake London | Yes (so far) |
| 2001 | 9 | Koren Robinson | No |
| 2007 | 9 | Ted Ginn | No |
| 2017 | 9 | John Ross | No |
| 2024 | 9 | Rome Odunze | Yes (so far) |
| 2004 | 9 | Reggie Williams | No |
| 2000 | 10 | Travis Taylor | No |
| 2005 | 10 | Mike Williams (Lions) | No |
| 2009 | 10 | Michael Crabtree | Yes |
| 2021 | 10 | DeVonta Smith | Yes |
| 2022 | 10 | Garrett Wilson | Yes |
There is, however, one possible other direction that I wouldn’t be surprised to see New England take: picking Graham. Recent history suggests that this, on average, is a slightly safer investment than making an investment in wide receiver. As far as Graham himself goes, his skill versatility, overwhelming size, and balance of great athletic traits makes him as promising as any of these prospects.
| Year | Pick | Name | Success |
| 2010 | 2 | Ndamukong Suh | Yes |
| 2001 | 3 | Gerard Warren | No |
| 2010 | 3 | Gerald McCoy | Yes |
| 2011 | 3 | Marcell Dareus | Yes |
| 2019 | 3 | Quinnen Williams | Yes |
| 2003 | 4 | Dewayne Robertson | No |
| 2008 | 5 | Glenn Dorsey | No |
| 2000 | 6 | Corey Simon | Yes |
| 2001 | 6 | Richard Seymour | Yes |
| 2002 | 6 | Ryan Sims | No |
| 2003 | 6 | Johnathan Sullivan | No |
| 2008 | 7 | Sedrick Ellis | Yes |
| 2020 | 7 | Derrick Brown | Yes |
| 2002 | 9 | John Henderson | Yes |
| 2009 | 9 | B.J. Raji | Yes |
| 2019 | 9 | Ed Oliver | Yes |
| 2023 | 9 | Jalen Carter | Yes |
| 2007 | 10 | Amobi Okoye | No |
Keeping that in mind, it seems more likely that New England goes for McMillan in the draft for a variety of reasons. The team needs a young, top wide receiver for its franchise quarterback, it needs a favorable contract relative to what a No. 1 wideout would command in free agency otherwise, and, in all likelihood, the Patriots will be in a position to take McMillan where he’s projected to be selected. If New England somehow fell from a Top 3 pick to near the bottom of the Top 10, the team should re-investigate their options. In our hypothetical though, the Patriots don’t over-complicate this decision, draft McMillan, and sign him to a contract similar to what Marvin Harrison Jr. signed with the Arizona Cardinals: four years, $39 million.
The Rest of the Draft
As it stands right now, the Patriots not only have the third overall pick in the draft – the team has an early second round pick, what’s set to be an early third round pick, and an all-but-guaranteed additional compensatory pick in the third round. With our first round projection out of the way though, we’re at the edge of where teams can realistically expect to get any type of long-term value from their draft selections. From here, New England can’t take a talent-trumps-all approach, nor can it fully commit to long-term solutions at holes in the roster. Instead, the team needs insurance.
I have two possible selections for New England that would go in the second round: Tennessee interior defensive lineman Omar Norman-Lott – a possible successor to Davon Godchaux and Daniel Ekuale – or North Dakota State tackle Grey Zabel. Norman-Lott’s shown brilliance as a situational interior pass rusher and has the athletic traits that point to him being potentially pro-ready under the right guidance, but he’s on the older side of draftees, struggles with lingering injury issues, and hasn’t dominated at the collegiate level. In Zabel’s case, he has excelled as a tackle after playing most of his collegiate career at guard, but he has short arms and has a lack of hand discipline that could be exposed in the pros. If I were to pick one of them, I think Zabel is the safer long-term project and would benefit from a locker room of veteran offensive lineman brought into the organization. Either one would likely command around $8 million over four years based on prior contracts signed by second round linemen.
For New England’s two third round picks, the goal is to draft potential long-term competition for backup and edge of roster spots. Given what we’ve already done for the tackle, cornerback, wide receiver, edge rush, interior defensive line, and tight end positions, I think it makes sense to focus on guard and center. I’m not nearly as familiar with the class of likely third-round players as I am for the first two rounds, so the names, to me, are less important than the role they play in giving Ben Brown and Layden Robinson competition. The two names that come to mind, for the sake of completing the roster, are Georgia guard Tate Ratelidge and Alabama center Parker Brailsford. The draft class for guards and centers seems to pick up around this part of the draft more than the earlier rounds anyhow, so New England will have plenty of selections for players it inevitably hands four-year, $5 million contracts.
From the fourth round onward, I don’t have any specific suggestions on players the Patriots should take. But for what it’s worth, the only signed players, as of right now, for the running back position in 2025 are Rhaemondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. Unless New England has really fallen in love with JaMycal Hasty, I expect to see him get competition this offseason via the draft. I feel similar about the Patriots maybe drafting another cornerback at the edge of the roster or even another edge rusher. Combined, whomever New England takes with these picks are negligible to the cap – maybe four million over the next year.
The 2025 New England Patriots
The Patriots are not going to become a 16-0 caliber team overnight. However, the goal isn’t to turn New England into Super Bowl contenders: it’s to raise the bar from “worst in the league” to “average” at problem positions. Combined with another step forward from Drake Maye, it could even be a wild card contending team.
| Position | Starter | Backup or No. 2 | Edge of Roster |
| QB | Drake Maye | Jacoby Brissett | Joe Milton III |
| HB | Rhaemondre Stevenson | Antonio Gibson | Either a late round HB pick OR practice squad player |
| WR | Tet McMillan Demario Douglas Kendrick Bourne | Ja’Lynn Polk Javon Baker (or Kayshon Boutte, preferably) | |
| TE | Hunter Henry | Austin Hooper | Either a late round TE pick or practice squad player |
| T | Both of the two big-name tackles signed in FA | Caedan Wallace Grey Zabel | |
| G | Michael Onwenu Cole Strange | Sidy Sow Layden Robinson Tate Ratelidge | |
| C | David Andrews | Ben Brown Parker Brailsford |
You can imagine a best case scenario for the 2025 Patriots here: a promising young quarterback with a tough offensive line, strong outside running game, and a wide receiver room of young and veteran talent alike. There are clear weaknesses in this offense – the interior line remains a question mark, even with the better depth around the position, and tight end is reliant on veterans – but this is a much better situation than 2024.
On the defensive and special teams side of the ball, the approach was simple. Bring back value players, address the two biggest holes of the defense (pass rush and lack of a good number two corner), have better availability from former stars (Barmore and Peppers), and put players in the best place to succeed. I expect the Patriots to play a lot of dime and nickel lineups in which they stack the line with strong rushers, play multiple safeties (particularly Dugger and Mapu in more linebacker spots rather than in coverage where both have struggled), and win man-to-man battles on the outside. Although I think this could still be susceptible to more physical, run-down-your-throat teams, at the very least, New England can get a strong pass rush going and lean on its depth-heavy defensive backs.
| Position | Starter | No. 2 or Backup | Edge of Roster |
| ED | Josh Sweat Keion White | Deatrich Wise Jr. Anfernee Jennings | |
| DI | Christian Barmore Daniel Ekuale | Davon Godchaux Jaquelin Roy | |
| LB | Jawhaun Bentley Jahlani Tavai | Christian Elliss Sione Takitaki | Either a late round LB pick or practice squad player |
| S | Jabrill Peppers Kyle Dugger | Dell Pettus Marte Mapu Brenden Schooler | |
| CB | Christian Gonzalez DJ Reed | Marcus Jones Alex Austin | Isaiah Bolden Marcellas Dial |
| K | Joey Slye | ||
| P | Bryce Baringer |
Funnily enough, the team with a successful “turnaround” from the previous that this reminds me of is the 2021 Patriots. It’s easy to ret-con this period of time as a fluke because of its inglorious end, but it wasn’t long ago when an off-season of mild overpays and calculated drafting brought the Patriots back to the playoffs. This time, by taking a similar approach with a quarterback that seems to have a far higher ceiling as a pro, New England can hopefully build a brighter future. The question, of course, is the man in charge of it.
The X-Factor
Throughout my autopsy series, I’ve focused on players that the organization needs to bring in. However, I’ve avoided talking about the elephant in the room: Jerod Mayo’s presence as a rookie head-coach. Without getting into detail, the record has been disastrous since the Patriots began the season with an unexpected win. In next week’s column, I’m going to break down everything about Mayo’s debut season as a head coach, and make the case for (and against) firing Mayo.